Trump is going to Asia — what happens next is anyone's guess

President Donald Trump is expected to leave for Asia at the end of the week, betting that an around-the-world journey will help him untangle big issues that he can't afford to get wrong.

At stake is nothing less than the future of the global economy, which could hinge on whether he's able to calm trade tensions during an expected meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. A misstep could send shock waves through American industries that have already been rattled by Trump's aggressive tariffs, government layoffs and political brinkmanship.

Trump's strategy of improvisation has had both hits and misses since he returned to office in January. Hamas returned hostages to Israel but the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile; a trade war with China has ebbed and flowed this year; and Russia's invasion of Ukraine hasn't slowed down despite Trump's efforts to resolve the conflict.

There's been some mystery around Trump's trip, with no official announcements from the White House about much of his itinerary. The president said Monday that he plans to go to Malaysia, which is hosting a regional summit, then Japan, where he's trying to nail down foreign investment.

He'll also visit South Korea, where he's working on more trade issues and expects to sit down with Xi. Beijing has yet to confirm that they'll meet, and the two leaders have recently exchanged threats of tariffs and export restrictions.

"I have a very good relationship with President Xi of China," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday. He offered to lower tariffs but "they have to give us some things too," including buying U.S. soybeans, reducing the flow of fentanyl ingredients and ending limits on rare earth minerals that are critical for high-tech manufacturing.

Trump expressed even more confidence on Monday, saying, "I think we're going to end up having a fantastic deal with China" and "it's going to be fantastic for the entire world."

This will be Trump's first trip to Asia in his second term

With just days to go before Trump leaves, there's an unusual level of ambiguity even for a president who loves to keep people guessing about his next move.

"The whole trip has seemed so uncertain from the beginning," said Bonnie Glaser, a managing director at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank.

It's Trump's first trip to Asia since returning to office. Although he's hosted leaders from the region at the White House, he hasn't forged the kind of foundational relationships that he has on other continents.

Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the president, responded to a list of questions about Trump's plans by saying he "will participate in meetings and events in Asia that will result in many great deals for our country." She added, "Stay tuned!"

Trump's approach to Asia has focused on using tariffs to realign what he describes as unfair trade practices, unnerving countries that depend on the United States as the world's largest market for exports. There's also anxiety about Trump's meeting with Xi, and the potential that a feud between the two leaders could send the international economy into a tailspin.

"There will be some appreciation for the fact that he's there, but I don't think it will go far enough to quell the doubts that are pervasive in the region," Glaser predicted.

The Republican president has downsized his foreign policy team since his first term, eschewing the typical array of advisers at the National Security Council in favor of a core group of loyalists.

"There's not very many White House staff to do this kind of work," said Rush Doshi, who worked on China policy under President Joe Biden. "All of this puts us in uncharted waters."

Michael Green, who worked on President George W. Bush's National Security Council and now leads the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, Australia, said there's been no clear Asia strategy from Trump.

"Everyone is waiting to see where he's going to come down on all of this," he said.

Others say Trump's approach is paying off. Anthony Kim, a research fellow in international economic affairs at the Heritage Foundation, said Japan and South Korea are eager to work with the administration to solidify partnerships.

The message from them has been "let's sit down, talk about relevant details to make a deal," Kim said.

Trump's plans remain in flux as the trip approaches

Malaysia is hosting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, an annual summit that Trump attended only once during his first term, even skipping it when it was held virtually during the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, this year the summit offers an opportunity to highlight Trump's peacemaking efforts, which he's made central to his foreign policy agenda.

Thailand and Cambodia skirmished along their disputed border over the summer, and Trump threatened to withhold trade deals with each country if they didn't stop fighting.

"They were willing to come together and talk to avoid more economic pain," said Ja Ian Chong, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.

Malaysia and the U.S. have been working toward securing an expanded ceasefire. The Malaysian foreign minister said Trump "looks forward" to the signing of an agreement at the summit.

Trump's next stop is Japan. Washington and Tokyo reached a trade agreement earlier this year, which included the promise of $550 billion of investments in U.S. projects.

Japan is in a moment of political transition, with Sanae Takaichi elected Tuesday to be the country's first female prime minister.

Takaichi is a protégé of Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister who was assassinated after leaving office. Trump was close with Abe during his first term, and Green said Takaichi "has the potential to also play that role."

Working with Trump and keeping him committed to U.S. alliances "requires a level of interaction and trust that none of the Asian leaders have," Green said.

South Korea is Trump's final stop on his trip

The climax of the president's journey will likely be South Korea, which is hosting this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Trump has said he'll sit down with Xi while he's there.

Tensions have increased in recent weeks, particularly with China's announcement of restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. Trump threatened to retaliate with tariffs so high that he admits they would be unsustainable.

Doshi, the former Biden adviser, said there are three potential outcomes from Trump's meeting with Xi — "deal, no deal or disaster." He said China is emboldened after Trump backed down on an earlier tariff announcement when Beijing restricted the export of rare earth magnets.

"The Chinese feel they have President Trump's number," Doshi said. "They feel that if they push on this, he'll fold."

Trump said Monday that China has "treated us with great respect" since he's been in office. He said "I could threaten them with many other things," but "I want to be good to China."

Another open question will be Trump's trade negotiations with South Korea, which is facing U.S. tariffs that could undermine its auto industry. However, Seoul has balked at Trump's demand for a $350 billion investment fund similar to the one in Japan.

"There's some momentum to the talks," said Wendy Cutler, who spent more than two decades as a U.S. trade negotiator and is now senior vice president at the Asia Society. "But I don't want to overstate it, because there are some fundamental differences about this fund that need to be sorted out."

She said it's not unusual for talks to go down to the wire, but this time "there are so many balls in the air."