Israel's elections: Four possible scenarios
Israel goes to the polls on October 27 with results forecast to be close, meaning that the next government will be determined by whoever can cobble together a coalition in a fragmented political landscape.
Israel votes through proportional representation based on the nationwide vote and it is highly unlikely that any single party would come even close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, or Knesset.
Here are four possible scenarios:
1. Coalition
Immediately after the election, the parties will begin negotiations to try to reach the 61-seat threshold.
After the official announcement of the results, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party representatives and name a candidate who has the chance to form a government -- not necessarily the party with the most seats, but the one deemed best positioned to secure enough seats in parliament.
The negotiations can be arduous and lengthy, with parties insisting on parochial interests, and can produce unstable governments.
Following the previous election in November 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form his government.
Polls show that Netanyahu's right-wing and far-right coalition and the opposition bloc, whose most prominent figure is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are neck and neck, with approximately 50 to 52 seats each.
The two sides have been nearly even in polls for weeks, foreshadowing a mathematical puzzle that both sides will have to solve to find the 10 or so seats needed for a coalition.
Israeli political history is full of twists and turns, with defections and other unexpected shifts in alliances.
Israel also has two new right-wing parties that are seen as scratching the threshold of entering parliament, where they could throw their decisive support to one of the two blocs.
2. Minority government
If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but rather through support on an ad hoc basis by other lawmakers.
In this scenario, lawmakers from Israel's Arab minority -- who make up 20 percent of the population and generally identify as Palestinians -- could play a critical role. Polls show that two Arab-Israeli lists, the Joint List and Raam, could win 12 to 14 seats in total.
Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, a kingmaker in the past, has stated its willingness to work with Eisenkot's bloc, and the Joint List has offered to provide a "safety net" for any coalition that ousts Netanyahu from power.
But the leading figures in the opposition bloc are reluctant to publicly acknowledge such a possibility, due to the hostility of a large segment of the Jewish electorate towards any form of alliance with Israeli Arabs.
This has not prevented Netanyahu from focusing his campaign on the possibility of Eisenkot working with Arab parties, campaigning on the slogan, "Either the right wing or Palestine."
3. National unity government
Considering Israel's extreme polarization, a national unity government would appear fanciful, but it could theoretically create a less extreme government.
Israeli commentators have often mused on the possibility of a national unity government in which Netanyahu would jettison his provocative far-right allies as well as ultra-Orthodox parties and team up with Eisenkot, who shares Netanyahu's views on many security issues.
The grand coalition would also exclude Arab parties.
A poll published on October 16 found that 55 percent of Israelis would prefer a national unity government over new elections if the vote did not produce a clear majority.
This scenario has a recent precedent. In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, like Eisenkot a retired general appealing to the center, reached a power-sharing agreement after three elections in less than a year, which stipulated a rotation of the prime ministership.
But the partnership fell apart after a year, triggering a new election. According to media reports, Herzog is working behind the scenes to bring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together to repeat the experiment should a deadlock occur after October 27.
However, the scenario would face strong opposition from both sides, particularly from the opposition bloc, which is treating the election as a referendum against Netanyahu and has questioned his character.
4. Deadlock and new elections
If no candidate manages to form a government, Israel will have to return to the polls.
The country held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 due to the inability of politicians to forge a lasting coalition.
The candidate designated by the president will, in principle, have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension, although there are other procedural ways to prevent an immediate calling of new elections.
Source: Agence France Presse
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