What lies ahead in Iraq: The hard task of forming a government
Following Iraq's parliamentary election this week, the complex and often lengthy task of choosing the country's next leader is set to begin.
Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani claimed victory for his coalition after preliminary results showed it was the largest bloc -- though it still falls short of the majority needed to form a government.
Sudani now faces the tough quest of securing support from other parties, mostly from the Shiite majority, in his bid for a second term.
With no single bloc dominating the next parliament, key parties could spend weeks or even months negotiating alliances to build the largest bloc and nominate the next premier.
Sudani was brought to power in 2022 by the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite factions with varying links to Iran.
While preliminary vote counts for each list by province were released, seat allocations in parliament will not be announced until later.
By convention in Iraq, a Shiite Muslim holds the post of prime minister and a Sunni that of parliament speaker, while the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.
- How is the government formed? -
Naming a premier and forming a government has often proven to be an arduous task involving protracted political wrangling.
In previous parliaments, Shiite majority parties have struck compromises to work together and form a government, and the main contenders often find themselves sidelined.
Seats are used as bargaining chips, and newly-elected lawmakers can switch sides.
With an outright majority almost impossible to achieve by any single list -- as was the case in this week's vote -- the next premier will be selected by whichever coalition can gather enough allies to become the biggest bloc.
Since voting began two years after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, only one premier, Nuri al-Maliki, has served for two terms (2006-2014).
- What are the possible outcomes? -
Currently, no serious candidates have emerged except for Sudani -- though he himself was a relative unknown prior to his nomination.
A senior politician told AFP last month that the Coordination Framework is divided over supporting Sudani, with Maliki seemingly poised to oppose a second term for the incumbent.
Long-term powerbrokers, including from the Coordination Framework, worry that Sudani has amassed too much power during his first term, making some reluctant to allow him to keep his seat.
Sudani has also faced allegations that members of his office were responsible for wiretapping the phones of politicians.
A source within a main party in the Coordination Framework told AFP that the alliance had previously agreed to reunite and create the largest bloc.
"They will name the next premier and participate in choosing the parliament speaker, his deputies and the president," the source said.
- What happened after previous votes? -
In the 2010 election, former premier Iyad Allawi's bloc won most seats, 91, closely followed by Maliki's alliance, which won 89.
After months of bickering, political leaders stuck a deal and Maliki was reappointed for another term despite coming second in the ballot.
In 2021, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr's bloc emerged as the biggest winner, with 73 seats, but still fell far short of a majority.
His bloc withdrew from parliament following a dispute with other Shiite parties that culminated in deadly fighting in Baghdad.
In the aftermath, influential parties instead came together under the Coordination Framework to form a larger bloc, and brought Sudani to power.
- What role do Tehran and Washington play? -
For decades, Iraq has been a proxy battleground between the US and Iran, and forming a government has always been influenced by the two foes.
The next premier will have to maintain the delicate balance between their interests.
Since the U.S.-led invasion, Iran has not only wielded significant influence in Iraqi politics, but also backs armed groups in the country, whose power has grown both politically and financially.
As Iran's regional influence wanes, it aims to preserve its power in Iraq and keep the market open to products from its crippled economy.
Washington meanwhile wants to cripple Tehran's influence, pressuring Baghdad to disarm Iran-backed factions, many of which have been designated as terrorist groups.
Some of those groups will nonetheless have seats in the parliament and maybe the government.
Last week, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told the Saudi-funded Al-Hadath channel that six pro-Iran factions are on a US blacklist -- a key factor the government must consider.
Source: Agence France Presse
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